Craps parity hedge
The Wizard of Odds answers readers' questions about Craps. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog focusing on real estate and investing. 96 Responses to “The majority of home purchases are now being done by cash buyers: Destroying the myth that cash buyers are a small portion of the market.
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If the area you are looking at is close to rental parity, it might make sense to buy. The continued drought in inventory means that people will be bidding up crap shacks. Sales Tax is based on consumption. If you put yourself in the shoes of the banks who want to make money, it is a little easier to see how they may mislead investors or not fully disclose their strategies for making money. The options industry insists that things have never been better for retail traders. Two cards are dealt from the CSM for each roll.
There was an odd sort of myth floating around the market that the cash buyer crowd was somehow a tiny portion of the market, like a drop of water in the vast ocean of home buying. This delusional dream played into the fantasy that this housing market was naturally rising because of overall household demand when in reality, it is being driven by investors leveraging the artificial low rates created by the Fed. The flood of money from Wall Street has been large.
Even anecdotally, it was apparent that cash buyers were driving the market given that housing is a margin driven market. That is, at any given time only a small portion of all homes are on the market for sale. However, an analysis by non-other than Goldman Sachs shows that 60 percent of all home sales are being driven by cash buyers.
That is, the middle class is largely being pushed out of this game and has become the minority in this real estate market. Let us look into the data more carefully. In reality, the market has been bubbling up because hot money is voraciously fighting over itself to eat up whatever inventory is available. The data now being released confirms how massive the investor portion of the market is:. But over the past seven years, the all-cash share of sales has more than doubled, increasing by more than 30 percentage points, according to economists Hui Shan, Marty Young and Charlie Himmelberg.
Think about this more carefully. The above chart clearly shows that investor money is really driving the bulk of the housing market. The low rates promoted by the Fed were cast under the umbrella of helping out regular families but in reality, they have turned into the next hot money play for banks, hedge funds, and Wall Street.
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The Parity Hedge System. This is the forgotten system that took the gambling world by storm for a few brief weeks in the early s. After we first mentioned the Parity Hedge System in , we have received literally thousands of e-mails requesting more information about the system, who developed it, why it never became public information, and what happened to it.
You have to understand what makes that strategy successful before you can delve into the intricacies of the Parity Hedge System. The originators of the Parity Hedge System were too smart to make themselves known. It is believed that they were nuclear physicists and theoretical mathematicians who were working at the Nevada Test Range, located just north of Las Vegas.
During the daytime, they put their skills to the test by creating new and unusual types of hydrogen bombs and measuring their yields. In the evening, they made their way into Las Vegas where they put their statistical know-how to the test on the Blackjack and Craps tables. This was a group of very sharp young minds who had studied under such geniuses as Von Neumann and Teller, and who knew how to "think outside the box".
Whether they picked up the Doey-Don't from other gamblers, or they figured the system out themselves is not known. At any rate, they quickly realized the nearly risk-free arbitrage nature of the "DD", and in their slack time at the test range began to theorize about how to improve on the Doey-Don't. Eventually, they were to develop their strategy into a situational algorithm that is much like a basic computer program.
Depending on the situation, betting a certain way will either slightly improve the odds, or will negate odds that have become heavily in the house's favor. Realizing that an overly-complex system was unworkable with a fast-paced game such as craps, these kid geniuses simplified the system into the "11 keys" that characterizes the system.
Just like other casino games, Craps has plenty of terms, slang and jargon that can be heard at the Craps table or around it. Knowing these terms makes the game a little easier to understand and play. Arm — Term used to describe a player who is skilled at throwing the dice, sometimes even suggesting that the player can alter the result by the way he throws. Center Bets — Also known as proposition bets, they are placed in the center of the table.
Cold Table — Something every Craps player hates! This table is losing often because shooters are not making points. Come Out Roll — The first roll by a shooter, either at the beginning of his turn or after he has made a point. Craps Out — rolling a craps on the come out roll includes loss of pass line bets. Easy Way — A dice roll of 4, 6, 8, and 10 with each die having a different number. Floorman — casino employee who stands behind the craps table, dealers with players and credit.
Horn High Bet — bet amount is split into five parts. Two parts on the high number 12 and three units for the other numbers 2, 3 and Hot Table — The best kind to play on! A Hot Table will have shooters making points and lots of money for other players. You can always spot these tables by the crowds around them and the noise coming from them.
Lay Bet — Betting that a point number will not be rolled before a 7 is thrown. Odds — ratio of an event occurring, generally the amount paid out per winning bet. Pit Boss — Casino employee responsible for all craps tables in one area of casino. Point Number — One of the numbers 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 determined on the come out roll. Rail — The grooved area along the top of the craps table where chips are kept. Seven Out — When a 7 is thrown after a point has been established and before the point number is rolled again thus ending the shooters turn.
Snake Eyes — When you roll a two in craps. Stickman — A casino employee standing opposite the Boxman who calls out the dice rolls and returns the dice to the shooter, also responsible for the placing and paying the proposition bets.